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Just like banks, it's difficult to separate debt from equity for insurance companies. So it's right to use cost of equity / ROE in DCF valuation for insurance
OK. Now I see the data is extracted from KLSE Screener.
These are historical data.
TTM EPS = 100 * 0.3884
TTM DPS 0.135
TTM P/E 8.47 = 3.29/ 0.3884
Note that KLSE Screener has mixed apples with oranges in the TTM EPS.
It sums up 1Q23 MFRS 17 EPS (11.15) and the last 3 quarters of 2022 MFRS4 EPS (8.95 + 10.43 + 8.32)
The apps EPS and P/E are therefore unusable. You need to manually adjust the numbers either based on MFRS4 or MFRS17 standard. Not easy.
I’m also not sure about the stability of this approach.
Refer to your Reference Point 1.
(100*0.3884/(1.75+0.135)-12.8)/8.47*3.29 = 3.03
Assume the company EPS is only half of last year EPS (meaning it earns less than its cost of equity), which is 0.1942, the projected share price will be negative!
(100*0.1942/(1.75+0.135)-12.8)/8.47*3.29 = -0.97
Ow兄说的对，investment income翻倍增长，远大于takaful service results。
（Net takaful financial results只增长53%）
我注意1H22有RM73m的FV loss和RM7m的impairment。到1H23已减少至RM10m。当这个贡献只是一次性吧。
主要的贡献来自Investment income on financial assets not measured at fair value through profit or loss (fvtpl)。从RM184m增长至RM231m。
难道是过去一年加息，所以新买的债券利息收入增加？
Note 14.1 是这样解释：
“Higher investment income by RM126.0 million mainly attributable to higher profit from fixed income investment assets and lower fair value loss on investment assets”
老实说我也不太明白。
嗨James兄， 关于水灾费用是属于什么类型呢？我的理解是 : （1）随机性 (2) 重复性 （3）一次性。 假设（2）重复性很明显就是管理风险的策略有问题。另外一个疑问是财报notes14的takaful service expenses中，为何没有举例retaful的费用？并且在group profit b4 zakat & tax "才" 开始说明 : It was partially offset by : ii) mainly attributable to net expense from retakaful contract.请原谅我的肤浅认知，如何衡量经营费用（1）group takaful service expense+ retakaful, +17% yoy. (2) group takaful service expenses without retakaful, +9% yoy. 如果真确的方法是（1）那么财报中有隐瞒投资者实情的嫌疑。。
对一般公司来说（不止保险公司），PB 可对比ROE。Price to NTA ratio 可对比 Return on net tangible asset ratio。
如果股东的资本是RM1, 平均每年的盈利只有两三分钱，低于RM1的股价是合理的。因为这证明管理层不能有效经营，无法为这RM1资本带来合理的回报，比如说最起码每年1角盈利。
MIDF Research initiated its “buy” call on Takaful Malaysia with a target price of RM4.97, pegged to a forecast financial year 2025 price-to-book value ratio of 1.84 times.
Investment income (excluding fair value changes) has improved slowly but steadily every quarter. This is a plus.
The latest quarter investment income (excluding fair value gains) is RM142m. But investment income has to be shared with fund participants. Assume the net finance expense is about 35%, shareholders get about RM142m *65% = RM92m before tax and zakat, or about RM65m after (assume 30% tax).
This is about 31 sen earnings per year. To me this is like the floor of earnings, as long as there is no fair value loss, business decline or underwriting loss.
31 sen earnings is worth RM2.5 at 8 times earnings, or RM3.1 at 10 times earnings.
We should add underwriting earnings which is represented by takaful service results. Here the trend doesn’t look good. It has declined from about RM200m (before tax and zakat) in 2022 to about RM170m in 2023, and only RM70m in 1H24. Latest quarter is only RM17m.
Has the company taken too much underwriting risk in the pursuit of growth?
In this latest quarter the Group underwriting margin is only 2%. If the trend continues it may even incur losses in the next quarter.
Does the management deliberately grow the business even with poor underwriting margin so that it can earn more investment income? I hope they strike the right balance between growth and profitability.