最近忙工作没什么看，不过大致上harbour 走势还是在预期里的调整。上周随大市被丢货到接近低点，随后缩量。我看了一看航运近期的行情，似乎没有好转的迹象。现在多空交战，空方看的大概率依然是运价在陆续有新船service 和8-9月见顶的趋势，而多方则是觉得胡塞武装和中东的冲突会造成一个比较chronic的运力下降。

大家都在等一个劲爆消息，或局势反转的迹象。或者股价的动作已经会提前告诉我们谁有机会胜出，我偏多方，那就看看谁对谁错。投资没包赚钱，谁都可能看错，可是重要的是理解自己的看法，并在做了适当的跟进后坚持立场。最后即使小亏离场，也算是【对的投资】

Good stable movement by harbour today, no surprising news on weekend. As I said retails who are easily tricked by headline news have already sold and look away, which is a good thing, which means lesser selling pressure in the short term. Now let’s allow some time to stabilise at this 1.62-1.68 range to fill the gap last week before challenging previous high. 1.8-1.9 is definitely very possible

The cabotage policy like I said in previous comments, is a Blackhorse event that investors haven’t factor in yet. For now, it’s still preliminary and no substantial effect in short term. But as sarawak seeks greater autonomy in different aspects of its economy, I believe it’s just a matter of when. And if it does, I think it will positively impact harbour in the sense of reducing competition. But one can’t just look at this news and buy harbour, depending on the current competitors around domestic trade and port calling, need to dig deeper on how the numbers work out to be positive, then do the valuation necessarily. For now I’m just looking at it as a potential catalyst, but nothing certain yet

Next Monday is a PH and before weekend so Harbour may take some days stabilising as most investors take a “see how first” approach. But presumably weak hands already sold off their stake and look away, which is a good thing.

If nothing crazy happens on weekend harbour should resume a small and slow climb next week , can it go beyond 1.8? It depends, few things happening now

1) ceasefire definitely not so soon, Israel is still not stopping its attack .
2) port strike at Germany/france
3) west coast labour ILA contract discussion not seeing results
4) Europe tariff on China EV

I usually don’t like to look at shipping stocks when the sentiment is bad, it’s volatile. Instead I closely monitor the Europe line container futures, it’s where the big players place their bet. If they stay high and stocks go low, it may be a good opportunity.

But again no investment is guaranteed, if things go south I have my stop loss in place and with my entry point, I’m merely risking a slightly lower profit, something I can gladly accept. But I’m confident that the retracement shouldn’t go any lower than its previous one . Let’s hope for the best

Good rebound as expected, I’m adding more if it drops back to 1.57-1.58

Cut loss point pulled up to 1.50 since I added more

1.55 is oversold, I added. I’m expecting at least rebound in the second half noon market

A disclaimer that I am all in for a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. But the fact is that hamas didn’t agree to the deal yet, they resubmitted a amendment which Israel didn’t yet agree: but if you look at headlines it sounded as if hamas was agreed and Israel had too, and plus share price drop it seemed like the news was true. Retailers alike will dump like crazy thinking rates are crumbling. But the truth is that it’s uncertain yet. I hope the suffering ends for them but realistically I am not too sure if it ends here and then so quickly. I doubt Israel will agree upfront, it would almost mean like a surrender (Israel officials say that, not me)

Two things to know
1) HAPAG LLYOD CEO just voiced out that the Red Sea diversion wouldn’t just turn around and all vessels go back so soon. Reason is simple, Houthis say they fight for Palestine, but no one knows if the attack is continuing. U can search for the news in google yourself. But again like I’ve always said, rates are expected to peak at Q3, so I still see this as a sudden catalyst removal that led investors to panic.Otherwise harbour fundamental remains unchanged as of now

2) hamas replied with amendments on ceasefire agreement, no one knows how Israel is gonna respond yet. Market hates uncertainty and people are just leaving to be safe

Key is here is that those who bet for rates going higher up to Q4 are leaving, those who know that harbour fundamental remains strong will stay. My avg price was at 1.2+ and I sold off majority at 1.8 when I commented yesterday morning. I picked up a few on 1.63 earlier this morning and I will cut off if it drops below 1.43. I assume that at least there will be a rebound tmr or end of the week. If you’re not a risk taker, no point recollecting now if you’re not confident. Know your own limits and preferences of investment. I’m here to give opinions and share insights, at the end everyone has their own investment style and there’s no right or wrong

Be cautious when things are optimistic, be different when things look bad. COSCO is down 12% today, Harbour is only down 6-7%. Reason? Because harbour is diversified with other income division such as O&G, logistics etc other than container shipping. Robust domestic trade would shield harbour from dropping too much compared to pure container players. Not to mention, Red Sea crisis doesn’t just end over an agreement. News is news, I’m not surprised if I see another news reporting conflict again suddenly. Don’t look at headlines, look at specific actions - for example, has any shipping companies say that they’re going to go back to Red Sea now?

Don’t get easily tricked by headline is one of important lesson investor needs to learn. If not we will forever be at mercy of those big crocs