Without jet fuel collar hedging (zero hedging policy), low cost carrier (with high fuel surcharges) will find it difficult to compete with full service carriers like MAS etc. amidst current geopolitical conflicts. ME conflicts have protracted for > 6 months and not likely to end anytime soon (maybe until 2027). In addition, capacity % affected as certain routes have to be curtailed and planes (leasing, airport charges and depreciation charges continue) grounded.

Professional scepticism (although not in the education syllabus > 50+ years ago) required as many parameters affecting the share price and equity markets are always fluid. IBs TP only as a guide as otherwise analysts do not need to be in employment and can be full time stock traders ! There will always be correct and wrong calls as nobody can be perfect.