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Speaking about CX5 :) You can try to compare the c-segment SUV data from the link for CX-5, Proton X70 and Honda CRV, Choong. Zoom in to 2023 to 2025. You will notice the following observations: (1) 2023 CX-5 numbers is averagely ~550 to 600 per month; pretty consistent if you will (2) The divergence between CX-5 and the X70 and CRV became obvious starting 2024. CRV took the lead right from the start in Jan'24 and all the way until Dec'24 averagely ~ 900 to 1k units per month. X70 jumped into the lead after Aug'24 and took the lead in C-segment SUV from Sep all the way to Dec'24 with avg more than 1k units per month for the last 4 months of the year. CX-5 on the other hand maintained the average in 2024 until Jul'24. Aug'24 onwards fell below 500 units per month and all the way until now. (3) Few observations that I am thinking led to the divergence in 2024; excluding year end promotion. Please add on if you have additional observation - (a) new 6th gen CRV launched in Dec'23 (b) CX5 launched facelift model in Jan'24 (c) X70 launched facelift with the same price! (4) What's in BAuto's mgmt thinking second half of 2024 for CX5 - possible the planning for 2025 onwards - CX5 limited edition / new CX5 2026 model; dependency on Mazda global launch plans though :) And models availability for sale timing means 2025 maybe a low cycle for BAuto but I personally will not make the same conclusion for 2026 at this moment; not to mention given the amount of share buybacks executed so far. Just my personal opinions, could be wrong. Hope it helps.
Hi Cheng. I din when through until so details like you.Really hope your expectations for Bermaz is right. But recently saw many dealers and sales rep from Bermaz really pushing for sales by advertising and posting videos in social medias
You should be able to see the movement from the statement of changes in equity, Choong. May need to calculate it. The numbers should jive at the end. Normally the changes in total comprehensive income and transaction with owners.
Hi Cheng. The only explanation that I can find from the report is the 150 mil were distributed as dividend for 1st, 2nd and special dividend. The amount of the dividend payout is similar to the amount decline in the reserve. Usually reserve fund can only be use to purchase assets, reinvest in business or distribute as dividend
should not be like that. You have to use last year reserves add total comprehensive income and make the adjustment for transaction with owners - dividend is going out so have to minus, esos is plus I think since getting money and other movement. Need to have a look inside the statement of equity.
Good discussions :) it's rare to see discussion into such minute details such as reserves and other line items. The normal responses are typically based on bar and line graph.
The reserves decreases bcos total dividend payout is >> total comprehensive income. No surprises with lower 3rd dividend as dividend situation has surfaced from the last two qr. Total dividend payout ctd is approx 300M. Lower dividend, lower deduction from reserves.
BAuto has consistent track records of keeping a clean balance sheet, Choong. I was expecting days of 300M to 400M qtrly revenue and 20M to 30M net profit but it delivered a 600M revenue. I thought BAuto must have turned rogue as sales data were low but did not find any abnormalities from "aggressive accounting" from the balance sheet. All is well. Its just the financial reporting timing versus the sales data; its Nov, Dec and Jan data.
The ops margin is below 10% still in the latest qr and CX5/Mazda cars margins seems to be the anchor for its margins in the past. A lower Mazda car sales means lower ops margins for BAuto. CX60, CX80 is moving up to premium / luxury SUV segment. Makes sense that it will improve its margins. In fact, any new models launching tends to boost up the sales figure as can be seen from the car registration data. CX5 limited edition and the new CX5 2026 model should be good for its margins too.
Yup the total debts has reduced. Mainly debts payable to creditors. The borrowing up maybe due to take up 11percent share in EMPB that is currently doing contract manufacturing for GWM Haval
EPMB is an interesting move by BAuto. EPMB supplying part to Inokom's Mazda CKD assembly plant in Kedah. And now BAuto has a stake in EPMB's assembly vehicle plant in Melaka. Any idea which models being assembled by EPMB?
EPMB currently assemble Haval H6. Previously mentioned the factory also can assemble EV car. Most likely will be Deepal as Xpeng is assemble in Indonesia
Not immediately, share account. Slowly but surely. Personally, I believed the fair value of BAuto is higher than 80 cents :) Not sure what are the assumptions that the analyst baked into its valuation model. After all, different analyst will have different fair value depending on the models and variables used in their calculation.
Thanks, Choong. EPMB makes money, BAuto makes money :) Btw, if EPMB can assemble EV car, it changes the whole situation then. CKD EV tax exemption expiring in 2027. BAuto can tap into EPMB EV car assembly to enjoy the benefits of the tax exemption.
Yup. During the acquisition of EPMB share, Bermaz got mentioned one of the reason of buying into EPMB is to gain certain percentage of production capacity for their EV models. Hope after going through this bad times Bermaz able to expedite things to gain back market share and investor confidence
thanks, Leong. the date seems to coincide with MSCI rebalancing date and the qty is ~1.4% which means they have pared down almost all their holdings following the index removal :(
indeed, cw. and share buybacks too; slightly more than 6M purchase value. several IBs updated the latest TPs and it can be seen from this app under target price.
Mazda Japan has announced next generation cx5 will be the 1st benefactor for Skyactiv Z engine. But Bermaz now operating in snail pace. Don't know how long Bermaz can last if continue at this pace
Better to be L-shape recovery instead of V-shape. A V-shape recovery will be considered euphoric and not sustainable without visibility of the new models in the pipeline
ChangAn CS75 Plus is in Thailand. Is direct competitor to H6 and Chery T8. Not sure Bermaz will get the distributorship or ChangAn will setup own company like others chinese brand
yeah. But if there is, its probably gonna be CBU from Thailand first. The current incentives are focusing on EVs (CBU expiring by end of 2025, CKD expiring by 2027). Can be quite challenging for automotive distributors right now in deciding whether to focus on EV or gasoline cars for their future models. Incentives and long term growth trends of energy consumption which is showing more on renewables.
MX30 in-house EV and Mazda 6e JV with Changan while developing its own in-house EV. And there's news that Mazda will ramp up its in-house EV platform offering new EV in 2027; possible SUV model.
Deepal and Xpeng in the mean time while waiting for in house Mazda EV, Choong. I agreed with you that Bermaz is lacking in terms of new models and in fact, kinda late in the EV game; the CBU tax exemptions if you will. It is what it is and priced in from the share price perspective.
Been wondering how come chinese car able to launch so quickly while Bermaz been talking about cx60 and cx80 since 2023 and Deepal since early 2024. Still no sign of launching for sale.
BAuto missed the CBU tax exemptions timing badly with MX-30 arriving a year later and influx of China made cars, including EVs at the same time, Choong. They have started offering Xpeng and Deepal; better late than never. BAuto will have to manage it through until Mazda in house EVs and new Skyactiv engine models launch. Perhaps in late 2026 or 2027.
Jaecoo launch another c and d segment suv killer. J8. With price tag 220k AWD. Mati la Honda CRV, VW Tiguan and etc. Mostly likely the unborn CX60 and CX80 too. Haizzz