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Should be this week, Nick. Its possible that it could be today too. It will be the same for me - continue to hold as long as the margins remain at min high single digit to low double digit while waiting for scalable growth. Anything lesser than that will no longer be attractive to hold it.
Cnergen is unique due to the nature of the business/industry that it is operating :) SMT/PCB industry serving factories in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam region and years of working relationship with its suppliers which are the top world ranked SMT machine manufacturers; Koh Young, ASM International and etc if you will. I guessed we were lucky to be able to build positions in the fifties and sixties during the low cycle; when it was the most hated stock despite the strong fundamentals.
I will sell Censof if there is no dividend announced by end of this week :) The latest qr showing ~7M deferred revenue which is good but current price has priced in the performance. It may pullback to mid twenties if there is no dividend announced.
Not sure, Nick. I am holding it tightly for now :) Same goes with QES. Both of these have seen increased foreign ownerships. Let abang and the funds/institutions do what they are best at; pricing it accordingly :)
that explained why it rebounded so much :) It has priced in the results. Did not notice any significant deferred revenue apart from the book orders. Margins are still good. Let abang and funds/institutions continue to do their job. And we tag along technically :)
I will just hold on to Cnergen and QES to ride the semiconductor theme for now; favourable tailwinds - china+1 strategies, capacity expansion at the back of clean balance sheet.
No impact to Malaysia ba. Emerging markets will still be attractive for foreign funds/insti compared to US market at the moment; unless the US market adjust accordingly. Russell index, Nasdaq, DJIA and S&P500 PE's are all at high side.
not yet, Nick. it has gone up by 30% and profit taking/adjustments by 10 to 15% is ok. General market is overheated to the extend price runs ahead of valuations :) Just like the DC hype :) Cnergen has to show some results in coming quarter or else, local abang will run first before foreign abang; will go below sixty when both abang starts running.
slow start in July. foreign abang became net sellers in Bursa towards the last two weeks of June; rebalancing their portfolios. Not much volatility in Cnergen for now.
Sep rate cut will be a booster for techs and consumer sector - lower financing and higher consumer spending. Will be nice to see some results from Cnergen in coming quarter to ride the positive external tailwinds.
it's okay I'm waiting below 0.4 to add another batch .. let's see if this stock will go against the tide . importing machineries , local IR, even if they get new project months later, forex wouldn't affect much ;)
Thanks, Nick. I am not convinced general/broad tech sentiment is good yet; selective counter probably yes. In fact, I think it will take another 6 months at least. Budget 2025 will probably provide some booster for high value high growth segment but may not be able to sustain it. There is only one listed chips design company - Oppstar. The potential is high if they can learn a great deal from the partnership with Samsung. It will take a few years though.
There's a few more non listed local companies in chips design. Give it a few more years and hopefully Malaysia will have our very own chips design company. Until then, continue to invest small amount and hopefully this segment will grow exponentially as ASIC chips design market is a big market for local companies to tap into.
RM3 at IPO is definitely way overvalued. A decent price to wait for growth in my personal opinion is at sixties or when quarterly revenue is at 25M and above.
still the same for semiconductor, Nick. No signs of broad tech sentiments. minimum wage in Feb'2025 may hit a few percentage points off the margins. For now, decent Q3 results for tech counters needed to get out from technical bear market situation. Its good to be selective until then :)
not so soon, Nick. There's still layoffs going on in major electronics/IT companies. Started with magnificent 7 stocks and many other tech companies are doing that. Samsung is the latest one. And China, Japan, Korea typically dominated slightly more than 30% in terms of chips design. No idea what is driving the layoffs - could be driven by cost reduction. We have not seen any cost reduction initiatives in local public listed semiconductor related companies :)
no no no. i will only sell genting and genm if the following conditions triggered - (1) no more growth story (2) higher taxes introduced by gomen :) There is only one IC design company listed now which is Oppstar but not the best. Malaysia's IC design best bet is probably sitting on one of the non listed local company. I am hoping that company will be going for IPO within 2 to 3 years time.
not sure whether recent local tech stocks hype and CNY rally will be able to bring it that high, Nick. If it does, its definitely a harvest opportunity. Rising wedge forming for Nasdaq/US100, fairly valued to overvalued tech stocks valuation in the US, and 10 year breakeven inflation rate ticking up since Sep, came down in Nov and ticked up again in Dec. Generally, the last few months rally in US tech stocks are purely driven by AI related stocks it seems; the megacap stocks - Nvda, Broadcom, Microsoft, Apple and Google. Without these few megacap stocks movement, it would have been a broader red performance in Nasdaq; particularly semiconductor. You can check out the technology maps from Finviz and select 3 months performance to give you that overview that I mentioned above - the few megacap stocks.
As for the 10 year breakeven inflation rate, you can pull out the chart from tradingview. Search for T10YIE and you will be able to see what I meant by ticking up since Sep :) The higher it goes, the tighter it is for monetary policies. Growth stocks not gonna like tightened monetary policies :) Maybe a good opportunity for a healthy corrections.
just follow your own stops strictly and enjoy the CNY rally :) after all, you should be able to observe "rvix" trend recently. Lol, no pun intended. Rvix doesnt exist, the R stands for retailers :) You can see the sudden optimism from the commentaries.
enjoy the year end holiday too, Nick and T&S. welcome minimum wage salary starting Feb'25 and Trump's presidency which will probably hit local tech stocks again. As for Nasdaq, its overdued for a healthy correction due to overvaluation; particularly AI stocks. Could be AI bubble next year?
nvidia has entered correction zone joining the semiconductor stocks :) Should be seeing other AI stocks to enter correction zone. We may be spot on with AI bubble next year. FOMC meeting pointing to tightened monetary policies :) A healthy correction is on the way for US tech stocks. Malaysia tech is still in technical bear zone anyway; just continue to be in there. Value stocks will dominate the headlines taking over from growth stocks?