This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 6, 2026 - July 12, 2026

UNTIL last November, there was a broad assumption that Chinese voters remained firmly behind the Democratic Action Party (DAP). The party had ridden a strong wave of Chinese support in the 15th general election and again in the 2023 state elections, sweeping most of the Chinese-majority seats it contested.

That belief was shaken after the Sabah state election on Nov 29, 2025. DAP’s crushing defeat, in which it was completely wiped out from the state assembly, sent shockwaves through political circles. It served as a wake-up call: DAP could no longer take Chinese voters for granted.

Most voters in Sabah, along with political observers The Edge spoke to, point to a growing sense of fatigue over the pace of reforms since the unity government took power more than three years ago. Rising living costs, perceived compromises on minority concerns, and slow progress on institutional reforms have all contributed to the unease.

In Peninsular Malaysia, discontent in Johor may not be as visible as in Sabah, but state election candidates cannot afford to brush it aside.

“They always make so many promises, but how many have actually been fulfilled?” retorts a middle-aged Chinese trader at a night market in Yong Peng when asked about the state polls on July 11.

At Yong Peng, a Chinese-majority town in central Johor, the N19 state seat swung back to the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) in the 2022 state election after DAP had won it twice previously.

Johor is seen as MCA’s last stronghold. Johor MCA chief Ling Tian Soon, defending his own turf in Yong Peng, is facing DAP newcomer Yong Hui Yi in a straight fight. The seat sits within the Ayer Hitam parliamentary constituency held by MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong. Local concerns often outweigh national narratives in this town, located about 105km from Johor Bahru.

Here, Ling enjoys a reputation as a hands-on “people-friendly” representative.

“We often see him in Yong Peng. He really takes care of the constituency,” said a voter during a walkabout at Dataran Gemilang.

Others credit him with infrastructure improvements, including resurfacing works along the pothole-prone Federal Route 1. Younger voters point to improved business activity and better access to banking services.

Chinese voters make up about 36% of Johor’s 2.7 million electorate. While they are not large enough to swing every seat, they could be kingmakers in many urban and semi-urban constituencies.

There are 14 state seats where Chinese voters form the largest bloc.

DAP is contesting 12 of them: Jementah, Bekok, Tangkak, Bentayan, Yong Peng, Penggaram, Mengkibol, Johor Jaya, Stulang, Perling, Skudai and Senai. In the last state election, it won all except Bekok and Yong Peng.

The remaining two Chinese-majority seats — Puteri Wangsa and Bukit Batu — are being contested by the People’s Justice Party (PKR) under Pakatan Harapan (PH).

A closer look at the numbers shows why even a small swing in Chinese support could have outsized consequences.

Of the 10 seats previously won by DAP, four were secured with margins below 10%. Bukit Batu, held by PKR, was even tighter, with a razor-thin majority of just 0.6%.

Beyond Chinese-majority seats, DAP is also contesting five mixed constituencies — Parit Raja, Paloh, Tiram, Pekan Nanas and Bukit Permai — where Chinese voters could still play a decisive role.

Chinese voters account for more than 40% of the electorate in Pekan Nanas, and over 30% in Paloh and Bukit Permai. Even in Parit Raja and Tiram, where they make up less than a quarter of voters, they could still prove decisive in closely fought contests.

DAP lost four seats to MCA in the 2022 state election, namely Pekan Nanas, Bekok, Yong Peng and Paloh.

Can DAP defend its turf in Johor, which is regarded as a Barisan Nasional (BN) political “fixed deposit”?

As if the Chinese vote were not already pivotal, its importance has been further amplified by allegations of a behindthescenes understanding between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN).

PN, the federal opposition, has opted to contest only 33 seats, leaving 14 constituencies as straight BN-PH contests. Of these, seven will see DAP go head-to-head with its long-time rival MCA: Bekok, Tangkak, Bentayan, Yong Peng, Penggaram, Mengkibol and Pekan Nanas.

The stakes are especially high, given the demographic make-up. Bentayan and Penggaram have Chinese voters exceeding 60%. Yong Peng and Mengkibol are above 50%, while Tangkak, Bekok and Pekan Nanas are all above 40%.

DAP leaders have alleged that PN’s decision not to contest these seats amounts to a deliberate easing off in the race. In this reading, PN is effectively smoothing BN’s path in its battles against DAP.

While unproven, such a view gained traction following remarks by PAS leaders urging supporters to back BN candidates in straight fights against PH.

Electoral data suggests that even a partial transfer of PN support to BN could shift outcomes in several seats.

Based on the 2022 Johor state election results, a full transfer of PN votes to BN would be enough for MCA to narrowly take Tangkak from DAP. In Bentayan, MCA’s combined vote share would rise to about 36%; in Penggaram, around 40%; and in Mengkibol, roughly 41%.

In seats already held by MCA, the gains would be more pronounced — projected vote share rising to about 73% in Bekok, and around 62% and 65% in Yong Peng and Pekan Nanas respectively.

However, voter turnout remains the key wild card. In the 2022 polls, turnout was below 60% in all seven constituencies where DAP and MCA are set for straight fights — except in Pekan Nanas.

Against this backdrop, the direction of the Chinese vote becomes decisive — whether as protest abstention, status quo support, or a quiet shift away from DAP.

“The contest is very tight, and turnout will definitely be the deciding factor,” said Tangkak PH candidate Ee Chin Li of DAP, who urged Johor voters working in Singapore to return home to vote.

To facilitate this, the government had previously proposed “dedicated lanes” at immigration checkpoints for returning voters.

As political disillusionment and voter fatigue among Chinese voters appear increasingly evident, some are doubting that the “dedicated lane” will be helpful to lift turnout rate.

From breadandbutter issues such as rising living costs and escalating rentals faced by the business community, to policy frustrations like the implementation of einvoicing and sensitivities over religious identity, the challenges are wideranging.

Even issues like pig farming in Selangor, though more than 300km away, has drawn the attention of Chinese voters in Johor.

Adding to PH’s challenge is the emergence of fresh political alternatives, particularly Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), led by former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and former PKR vice president Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.

The party is making its electoral debut by contesting 15 seats in Johor, mostly concentrated in the southern region. Several of these seats were previously held by DAP, including Johor Jaya, Skudai, Senai, Perling and Stulang.

Bersama’s target is clear: to appeal to a sizeable bloc of progressive swing voters.

“More than half of Chinese voters are essentially fence-sitters,” Rafizi told The Edge. “Many supported PH previously not just because of DAP, but because they believed in the idea of a progressive, multiracial coalition.”

However, views among Chinese voters remain divided. Some welcome Bersama as a new option, while others remain unconvinced.

“We were DAP voters last election. We didn’t really have a choice then,” a Chinese packaging supplier for an e-commerce business attending a Bersama ceramah in Permas on July 1 told The Edge.

An elderly voter from Senai expressed uncertainty. “I don’t really know who to vote for. Honestly, I don’t know much about Bersama,” he admitted, adding that the party still largely rides on the popularity of its leaders.

In response, DAP leaders have largely gone on the defensive, stressing that the unity government is a multi-party arrangement rather than one dictated solely by PH.

At the same time, the party has returned to familiar campaign lines: “A vote for BN is a vote for PAS” and “A vote for BN is a vote for Akmal Saleh”, reviving what critics describe as political bogeyman tactics.

Akmal, the Umno Youth chief, has emerged as a recurring lightning rod in these narratives. Although not contesting in Johor, his hard-line rhetoric on race, religion and vernacular education, alongside a string of high-profile controversies, has made him a polarising figure among non-Malay voters.

Whether the bogeyman narrative still carries weight, however, is less certain in Johor’s politically fluid south, where swing voters form a significant bloc.

In northern Johor, however, the old political reflexes appear to persist.

“We really don’t like Akmal and PAS, so we will definitely continue supporting DAP,” said a group of elderly men at a kopitiam in Tangkak. This sentiment reflects both lingering unease with certain national figures and the lack of a credible third force in the region.

The anti-PAS sentiment has forced MCA to craft its own counter-narrative. Speaking at a lunch session with party members in Buloh Kasap on June 29, MCA’s Ling told the voters BN’s intention is to govern on its own, rather than form a coalition government with other parties.

“If we can’t govern on our own, then we might as well not be in government,” he said.

Will Ling’s service record outweigh the tides of national politics? Will Johoreans working in Singapore bother to vote on July 11 in hopes of a better future at home?

The answers to these questions will determine not just the future of politics for the state but also for the whole country heading into the next general election. 

Read also:
Johor polls may impact Anwar’s unity government
Snap polls a test of Bersama’s viability
Three factors that could decide the outcome
BN-PAS non-formal alliance adds a new twist
Johor state seat composition over the years

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