中国房地产疲软, 基础建设放缓贸易紧张局势影响中国出口, 抑制国内+全球需求, 导致钢铁价格下跌. 下个季度由于生产水平居高不下, 钢铁价承受下游压力, 需求前景不好, 尽管中国政府推动减少能源消耗并在钢铁行业实施更严格的碳排放标准, 可能有帮助降低产量, 但全球需求疲软恐怕短期内还是对公司的盈利有影响.

但是马币走强将会对公司有一定程度的利好毕竟原材料都是进口的, 只是短期内市场充满太多不确定性

国内也面对政府对于越南的进口钢铁拿走了反倾销税, 同时需要 Mega Project 的推动才会导致钢铁需求上升. 以周期性出名的行业, 即使这家公司能保持小额亏损/持续盈利, 但是相信市场不会买单吧. 再观察看看

According to Damodaran, projecting the performance of cyclical companies based on the current performance can lead to mis-valuations. He opined that for such companies we should look at the performance over the cycle – the normalized performance

When I carried out such an analysis of CSC Steel, I found that there is still a margin of safety based on its current price. Refer to page 20 of the article https://notice.shareinvestor.com/email/newsletter/invest/pdf/Vol197_Invest-01Mar.pdf

Ternium is a South American steel company. Although it has some mining operations, these serve mainly in-house and are a small component relative to the steel output. It achieved revenue and profit growth through organic growth and acquisitions over the past 11 years. https://i.postimg.cc/kgw7QWJk/Ternium.png

It has a strong financial position and a good capital allocation plan, creating value for shareholders. A Valuation based on the steel price cycle shows a sufficient margin of safety, making it an investment opportunity.

If you are already invested in Bursa steel companies, this might be a good geographical diversification. https://www.i4value.asia/2021/10/a-tough-12-years-for-bursa-malaysia.html#more