shernjlow's comment on AAX. All Comments

shernjlow
4 Like · Reply
Blockade is going to be lifted. Tp 1.70
cheng
interesting announcement. the mgmt is focusing on optimisation and yield improvement by opting for smaller planes - fly-thru connectivity, entering secondary cities/hubs, lower fuel consumption lower trip cost, higher load factor due to lower capacity, resulting in higher flexibility, lower operating costs and higher margins for secondary route.
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1 Like · 1 week · translate
Daniel
Able to get the huge funding (~ RM76 billion although can be staggered over a few years) based on 1H 2026 (QR1 & QR2 2026) results ?
1 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
not a problem, Daniel :) The reason is that airlines seldom operates in such manner of buying planes with cash. The 76 billion looks big and scary but in reality, it works differently. You may have heard the term sale and leaseback from the industry. Tony likes that concept and has been using that. And its not lump sum too as its staggered deliveries. The key point here is whether travel demand will be there in 10 to 15 years from now (delivery starting 2028), AAX earnings/profitability higher than the lease cost - driven by demand and manage & deploy # of planes accordingly.
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Izztanker Gaming
this time sure fly?can past 140 line?
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cheng
we will know by end of May
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Shirley Shirley
Cheng, RM1.30 can buy little little?
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Admiral Adama
let me tell u guys how to print money into your pocket out of nothing from the so called sales and leaseback:

1. borrow huge money to buy planes.
2. sell it to another entity and lease back.
3. receive huge sum of cash.
4. pay huge special dividen.
5. sell all shares after the dividen. let other s o h a i hold risk for the empty shell company.
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2 Like · 1 week · translate
Admiral Adama
dont worry if the company cant service the debt, just ask the creditor nicely to forfeit the debt...
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Daniel
@ Adama. A very good & smart summary indeed :-)
1 Like · 1 week · translate
Admiral Adama
assume just rm50bil cash from sales and lease back, that means potential special dividen per shares = 50000 ÷ 3360 = rm15 per share.

ini kalilah...
1 Like · 1 week · translate
cheng
hi Shirley, I won't buy at 1.30. I have traded AAX twice at 1.05 and 1.15. Sold it at 1.30 in both occasions. Not recommended to buy airlines stocks if you are not familiar with the industry. I am not in favor of long term position for airlines stock due to seasonality and high leverage. I will consider it when there's huge discount or during peak travel season which is summer. Right now, I am just holding european/regional airlines stock for the upcoming summer.
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cheng
As for AAX, there is no jet fuel hedging communication up till now and seems to me that there is no plan to initiate hedging. So, this is a risk for higher cost. AAX sentiment will improve once a treaty is signed between US and Iran. Trump is under pressure to sign a deal:) AAX load factor at 84% which is pretty decent and not bad as long as it is above 80%; short term trade is ok if there is discount.
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cheng
Lol, Adama. I don't think AAX will issue special dividend for the A220 sales and leaseback. Well, it's 2028 which is 2 years from now and things may change by then.
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Admiral Adama
that is why i think aax will still suffer from high fuel cost even if the war ended. There is no way the crude oil fall back to pre-war level and it will still stay at high level for quite some time.

Personally, i believe aax will make unprecedented "real cash" loss. The so called "restructuring" is just an accounting tricks and it provides no buffer to such a crisis.

u manage to cheat death once, maybe this time u dont come back haha...
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cheng
Technicals/market structure instead of fundamentals/balance sheet for AAX positions :)
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Daniel
Of course, hedging cannot be done at current elevated jet fuel prices. AAX insists that they will not do jet fuel hedging similar to policies adopted by US airlines. However, just look at the fate of USA Spirit Airlines. AAX QRs will look really ugly in Q2, Q3 and Q4 2026 as global crude oil prices will stay elevated at least in 2026 and consumer demand destructions (high air fares + fuel surcharges) for air travel starting since May 2026. O&G infrastructures already affected in the Middle East and will take time to recover even after ME conflict ended. AAX should have adopted prudent collar fuel hedging (say 50%-75%) when global crude oil prices were low (US$60-US$70) Pre Middle East conflict.
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cheng
Choose the one with hedging if you are looking for bargains. Have a look at Jet2 - hedged ~85% of its jet fuel summer requirement at ~700 per metric tonne.
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shernjlow
Taco tuesday
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cheng
yes, TACO week, World's Premier in Beijing. The key to US-Iran war. Venezuela and then Iran - TACO's leverage against Xi. TACO cannot simply raised tariffs after his liberation day tariff was rejected by the supreme court. He needs leverage and uses oil instead. Lol, no pun intended. Lets see what is the outcome from this week's meeting. Trump needs a soft landing heading into mid term elections in Nov, Xi to meet him year end in US at the back of poor approval ratings.
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cheng
Summer is coming too. US maybe shielded earlier but the gasoline and diesel inventories are at multi year low in US. Their own people will start feeling the pain from the war. lets see how long can he gung-ho.
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