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By the way, just found out you are just enjoying trolling around in klsescreener after seeing your commen history, so not going to waste more time on replying you. Block and forget.
Apple N1 chip replacing Inari RF business will be significant and still difficult to quantify the fundamental impact with any degree of certainty at this juncture.
Cooler heads prevail. Sharing is good and it helps to keep biases at bay. this thread was started about 2 months ago when USASA95 asking whether 1.75 is a good price to enter when the price was hovering near 1.90. None of the folks in this thread capable of distributing and selling the price down to where it is today.
@1.35 today seems very tempting indeed but a one year+ (since mid 2024) share price sell down (-ve 65%) from the high of RM3.95 warrants patience in waiting out for visibility to be clearer after a prolonged Winter :-|
Daniel, since you still view Inari as Apple proxy, my suggestion is for you to do more research into their business, then only you should decide to buy or not at what price level.
teardown reports for iPhone 17 showing Broadcom's advanced FEM which has the fbar filters functionality integrated instead of the standalone fbar filters. It raises two questions - (1) volume of standalone fbar filters will drop (2) seeing an AFEM means more system level testing and packaging instead of standalone fbar filters. There is no documented evidence that Inari is doing the system level testing for Broadcom's AFEM. Could it be Broadcom's AFEM orders for system level testing and packaging went to Amkor or ASE/SPIL while Inari's standalone fbar filters is taking a hit?
Inari missed out on advance packaging for iphone17 because production line was not ready, order went to ASE. For iphone 18 they will get it back, production line is ready. It's not a secret, information widely available.
there's more to the integration in terms of unknown impact to Inari - volume and margins. Integrated (FEM) volume versus standalone RF devices - amplifiers, switches, fbar filters; until actual signs of growth appear. Analysts cited cautiously optimistic with FY27 which is 3 more quarters from now. At the same time, Broadcom and Apple contract which is normally renewed every 3 years is due again this year; should hear something about it by mid of this year.
In addition, price cuts for technology and consumer products happening due to competitive global markets. Orders and margin compression uncertainties due to on-going cost optimisation initiatives implemented by US customers.
Cheng just stating his fair opinion based on analysis. No right or no wrong in sharing information. Short sellers will not be lurking if sentiment on the stock is absolutely positive at this juncture. Even EPF & KWAP disposing too.
woit... chillax. lets be objective and stay on the course of "what" instead of "who". its public forum and anyone can provide their opinions. we have been having these exchanges of opinions at least 2 months ago on the RF segment and I am also learning from other's opinions. No longer fear now and its in anger/depression cycle. Should we move on to Lumileds which is a loss making company and filed for Chapter 11 in 2022 and under negative credit watch ratings by S&P Global? What is San'an eyeing in this deal? I would like to learn more about this too.
haha just joking. We are a matured investor who know that 2nd opinion really matters. We weight and adjust our biases based on multiple facts rather than reject the facts that doesnt fit our biases...
True, Adama. Unfortunately, Ho Kuan has just blocked me as his responses in this thread are no longer visible to me after my latest comments about Lumileds. His convictions on Inari seems to be strong on the surface but emotionally unstable when there are different opinions.
there is something else that San'an and Inari have to deal with in the future; Everlight Electronics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter “Everlight”) filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Lumileds Holding B.V. and Lumileds, LLC (hereinafter “Lumileds”) in the United States District Court for the District of Delaware on February 2, 2026. The defendants are LED electronic component manufacturers. Everlight alleges that Lumileds has infringed upon its US flip-chip patent, US Patent No. 7,554,126, and that the infringing products are specific automotive LED products sold by Lumileds. Details in the following link and scroll to 4th of Feb 2026 news - https://www.ledinside.com/products
There isnt much patents cross licensing between Lumileds and other major players in the industry over the recent years. The recent one was between Nichia and Osram. This industry is relatively complicated and has seen many patents infringement lawsuits. And look at what happens to D&O after Nichia won the patents infringement lawsuits.
i think they have to deal with it if you want to own the IP or Pattern. Part of biz world.
i have seen lumiled has undergons the plan to move from oversea region office to penang. as their region office. like FC or finance director.
inari also hunting for advance packaging director and process intergration director.
these 2 directors usually onboard when mass production to be commenced
lumiled cant make profit now mainly due to their excesive capacity and not productive.
inari is being known as efficient. they can use thei capacity and improve the producyion BE via Inari4.0
just be conservative with the acquisition for now until proven otherwise. first thing first, have to get clearance from authorities for the deal to pass through. China's acquisition of foreign entity can be sensitive. thereafter, the yields as you mentioned and margins which should be lower than Inari's existing segment. Not too late to wait until the deal closure and signs of growth from Inari's report.
Structural decline in RF segment, 20-20 relief and followed by failed acquisition. That hammered Inari's hope to diversify into Optoelectronics to reduce the dependency on RF segment. Kaput. New low is coming.
i think someone mentioned Inari lost the demand to ASE previously. i am afraid Inari will find it hard to challenge ASE for fowlp as ASE is also a key OSAT player in this field.
Instead, capacity constraints (notably from "N" customer) drove end-brand owner to secure long-term partnerships with Inari customer, enhancing supply chain control. Multi-year visibility supported by master agreements spanning 2 product generations, with design cycles locked in ~1 year ahead.
From MIDF today report
Revision in earnings forecasts and target price. We made no changes to
our FY26 earnings estimates at this juncture. However, we raised FY27 and
FY28 earnings estimates by +37.1% and +45.3% respectively. This was
achieved by assuming strong rebound in the RF business, better
monetisation effort for the opto business as well as greater earnings for the
power management.
Pursuant to our earnings revision, we also forward our valuation-based year
to CY27 and derived a higher target price of RM2.95 (previously RM1.54).
Note that we also attached a higher PER valuation of 30.1x which is +1SD
above the five-year mean (from 26.9x). This is to reflect the shift towards a
more balanced product portfolio.
Thanks, Gabriel. I am not so sure about the assumption of strong rebound in the RF business from technology perspective. Will higher integration leads to lower quantity of RF filters/components per device? Competition is stiff now.
Optical component manufacturers are expected to expand production capacity by approximately 12 times between 2025 and 2030, yet supply will remain roughly 50% below demand through the end of the decade, according to Rosenblatt’s proprietary supply and demand model.
Thanks, Gabriel. Read the write-up from hlib and I will skip this one for now. Wish you will gain more and consider doing risk mgmt if you are eyeing for long term given the optimistic 30x CY27 PE, the assumptions used, and current price which has reflected the upside case; limited to no mos if you will.
HL: Datacom photonics – in a structural upcycle. The primary growth driver within this segment is Customer B's optical components division, which outsources processed indium phosphide (InP) wafers to Inari for further back-end processing and chip-on-carrier assembly into optical laser chips (EML and CW). Inari has served Customer B in this capacity since 2015.
The structural shift driving demand is the ongoing displacement of copper interconnects by optical solutions across AI DC, as the industry pushes toward higher 800G and 1.6T speeds. Today, scale-out connectivity (inter-rack) is already predominantly optical, while scale-up (intra-rack, GPU board-level) — the much larger volume opportunity — is only beginning to transition.
This transition is driving strong demand for high-power EML laser chips, where supply remains highly concentrated among Customer B, Lumentum, Coherent, and Sumitomo Electric. Despite ongoing aggressive capacity expansion across these key suppliers, demand is still severely outstripping supply, with shortages expected to persist beyond 2027.
Disclosure from Customer B remains limited, but industry checks point to a significant expansion of InP wafer capacity (by 4-6x) at its existing US site and also a new fab in Singapore. We view this as consistent with Inari’s guidance of doubling its existing capacity for the datacom photonics segment annually over FY27 and FY28
Customer L – incremental upside, RFQ pending. A secondary driver for datacom photonics could come from Customer L, which is scaling its optical transceiver output via regional contract manufacturing partners. If secured, our understanding is that Inari would handle wafer processing and die attach/wirebond, with module-level assembly sitting with another local EMS partner. The program is currently under RFQ; production ramp could begin by end-2026 if awarded.
TrendForce's latest research indicates that, with the expansion of Al data center scales and the arms race in computing power, transmission rates have risen above 1.6 Tbps. NVIDIA, Google, Meta, and other vendors, to ensure a stable supply, are strategically locking in production capacity from EML and CW-DFB LD chip suppliers, driving suppliers to actively expand production in response to customer demand. This will further boost total EML and CW-DFB LD production capacity by more than twofold in
twofold in 2026, reaching 50.7 million units. The top three vendors, in order, are Broadcom, Lumentum, and Sumitomo Electric, with a combined market share of 55%.