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50% drawdown in the first 4 months of 2025, attempted a 6 months rebound and only to end 2025 with a round trip to within Apr's low in two months time. A surge of fear, a flicker of hope and a return to despair.
Cheng, despair is actually a good signal, 90% of the time when retailers feel despair, it's very close to the bottom. That's why retailers always said, the share price always rebounds after they cut their losses.
I agreed with Adama that winter is not over yet. Cna expect more volatility if it is structural decline in its demand due to supply chain change / strategic shift from its major customer.
extended winter until the next Broadcom - Apple contract renewal for RF components. The last mega deal was signed in 2023 to supply the components and wifi chips for 2024, 2025, 2026. Wifi chips is now replaced with Apple's in-house chips. Maybe will have clarity between May and Sep this year.
mgmt guidance challenging FY2026 as Adama mentioned and looking ahead to FY2027 - Inari will still be affected by the smartphone cycle and declining market share in fiscal year 2026, but management is looking ahead to fiscal year 2027 as packaging capacity is redistributed. At the same time, the acquisition of Lumileds is progressing smoothly, and the government's support for advanced packaging investment is expected to help strengthen the medium- and long-term technology and product layout.
Ooh boy... Apple's results is good driven by IPhone 17. But iPhone 17 uses Apple's own networking/wifi chip instead of Broadcom. What will happen to Inari's RF segment in the upcoming qtr report? Google, Micron and TSMC seems to be the gainers.
Jan was a good month with foreign and local funds net buying. Feb started off with foreign net selling for 5th session - profit taking and risk off mode probably as earnings season for klse companies around the corner coupled with external headwinds. Let's see how it goes after CNY as the earnings season goes into full swing. US correction should be done by then :)
After the court’s decision, Trump’s trade representative, Jamieson Greer, told Fox News on Friday that those countries must honor agreements even if they call for higher rates than the Section 122 tariffs.
Exports to the US from countries such as Malaysia and Cambodia would continue to be taxed at their negotiated rates of 19%, even though the universal rate is lower, Greer said.
One thing for sure - the decision from the US Supreme court means more power for the congress than the US President :) Trump and his team are in panic mode now. What happens next - more lawsuits from US importers to reclaim the tariffs they have paid, supply chain rebalancing again and Trump's rhetoric - janji ada gaya.
Section 122 and 301 have different implication it seems. 122 - max 15% and for 150 days only. Extension requires Congress approval. 301 - the one used against China during Trump's first term. It requires investigation and takes time; meaning most of the countries will not fall into this category probably.
MNCs involved in life science/medical industry, AI chips manufacturing, logic and memory manufacturing and some in automotive chips manufacturing. The life science and AI chips manufacturing will probably trigger most of the ate capex demand driven by sophisticated/advanced requirements.
So it would be very logical to start accumulating the related companies that you have mentioned, ATE business is booming because their clients are expanding their business. So the next question is, does ATE enjoys recurring income from the machines sold? or their clients who is currently expanding?
By the way, just found out you are just enjoying trolling around in klsescreener after seeing your commen history, so not going to waste more time on replying you. Block and forget.
Apple N1 chip replacing Inari RF business will be significant and still difficult to quantify the fundamental impact with any degree of certainty at this juncture.
Cooler heads prevail. Sharing is good and it helps to keep biases at bay. this thread was started about 2 months ago when USASA95 asking whether 1.75 is a good price to enter when the price was hovering near 1.90. None of the folks in this thread capable of distributing and selling the price down to where it is today.
@1.35 today seems very tempting indeed but a one year+ (since mid 2024) share price sell down (-ve 65%) from the high of RM3.95 warrants patience in waiting out for visibility to be clearer after a prolonged Winter :-|
Daniel, since you still view Inari as Apple proxy, my suggestion is for you to do more research into their business, then only you should decide to buy or not at what price level.
teardown reports for iPhone 17 showing Broadcom's advanced FEM which has the fbar filters functionality integrated instead of the standalone fbar filters. It raises two questions - (1) volume of standalone fbar filters will drop (2) seeing an AFEM means more system level testing and packaging instead of standalone fbar filters. There is no documented evidence that Inari is doing the system level testing for Broadcom's AFEM. Could it be Broadcom's AFEM orders for system level testing and packaging went to Amkor or ASE/SPIL while Inari's standalone fbar filters is taking a hit?
Inari missed out on advance packaging for iphone17 because production line was not ready, order went to ASE. For iphone 18 they will get it back, production line is ready. It's not a secret, information widely available.
there's more to the integration in terms of unknown impact to Inari - volume and margins. Integrated (FEM) volume versus standalone RF devices - amplifiers, switches, fbar filters; until actual signs of growth appear. Analysts cited cautiously optimistic with FY27 which is 3 more quarters from now. At the same time, Broadcom and Apple contract which is normally renewed every 3 years is due again this year; should hear something about it by mid of this year.
In addition, price cuts for technology and consumer products happening due to competitive global markets. Orders and margin compression uncertainties due to on-going cost optimisation initiatives implemented by US customers.
Cheng just stating his fair opinion based on analysis. No right or no wrong in sharing information. Short sellers will not be lurking if sentiment on the stock is absolutely positive at this juncture. Even EPF & KWAP disposing too.
woit... chillax. lets be objective and stay on the course of "what" instead of "who". its public forum and anyone can provide their opinions. we have been having these exchanges of opinions at least 2 months ago on the RF segment and I am also learning from other's opinions. No longer fear now and its in anger/depression cycle. Should we move on to Lumileds which is a loss making company and filed for Chapter 11 in 2022 and under negative credit watch ratings by S&P Global? What is San'an eyeing in this deal? I would like to learn more about this too.
haha just joking. We are a matured investor who know that 2nd opinion really matters. We weight and adjust our biases based on multiple facts rather than reject the facts that doesnt fit our biases...
True, Adama. Unfortunately, Ho Kuan has just blocked me as his responses in this thread are no longer visible to me after my latest comments about Lumileds. His convictions on Inari seems to be strong on the surface but emotionally unstable when there are different opinions.
there is something else that San'an and Inari have to deal with in the future; Everlight Electronics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter “Everlight”) filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Lumileds Holding B.V. and Lumileds, LLC (hereinafter “Lumileds”) in the United States District Court for the District of Delaware on February 2, 2026. The defendants are LED electronic component manufacturers. Everlight alleges that Lumileds has infringed upon its US flip-chip patent, US Patent No. 7,554,126, and that the infringing products are specific automotive LED products sold by Lumileds. Details in the following link and scroll to 4th of Feb 2026 news - https://www.ledinside.com/products
There isnt much patents cross licensing between Lumileds and other major players in the industry over the recent years. The recent one was between Nichia and Osram. This industry is relatively complicated and has seen many patents infringement lawsuits. And look at what happens to D&O after Nichia won the patents infringement lawsuits.
i think they have to deal with it if you want to own the IP or Pattern. Part of biz world.
i have seen lumiled has undergons the plan to move from oversea region office to penang. as their region office. like FC or finance director.
inari also hunting for advance packaging director and process intergration director.
these 2 directors usually onboard when mass production to be commenced
lumiled cant make profit now mainly due to their excesive capacity and not productive.
inari is being known as efficient. they can use thei capacity and improve the producyion BE via Inari4.0
just be conservative with the acquisition for now until proven otherwise. first thing first, have to get clearance from authorities for the deal to pass through. China's acquisition of foreign entity can be sensitive. thereafter, the yields as you mentioned and margins which should be lower than Inari's existing segment. Not too late to wait until the deal closure and signs of growth from Inari's report.