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Q2'25 results should be a good indicator for GenS recovery with the opening of the all suite luxury hotel. GenM will continue to cover for q4'24 flattish GenS performance.
Cheng, what do you think the bottom price for genting? Today the share price suddenly plunge to RM3.52... My heart sudden stop for few sec. ... Lucky show hammered before closing 3.56...
Lol, Vin. You must have invested heavily in Genting :) depending on types of technical indicators that you are using, Vin. I think the price is already at the bottom though I have not seen any signs of divergence yet. There is no negative news either. Funds/insti are the "chart maker" :) It will reverse when they start buying.
Yes, Jk. In other words, funds/insti will also be the one that determines the lower limit and upper limit from value perspective; the buy side and sell side.
Ok. Thx again cheng..
Hope genting will annouce some good news in short term... Currently the price really unexpected.. RM3.52 lowest... Almost close to mco price
FTSE KLCI Index funds would have fully exited Genting by the end of this week. Lets see whether will the value and the yield of Genting be attractive enough for other funds/insti when they perform their quarter end portfolio rebalancing going into Jan'25.
tightening monetary policies in the horizon and growth stocks not gonna like it. After all, its fairly valued to overvalued situation in the US. As for Genting, its undervalued based on all the analysts ratings from WSJ; no negative news, priced in GenS short term disruptions, limited downside if you will. We should see some funds/insti actions next week going into end of 2024 and beginning of Jan'25. We will know whether they are optimistic or pessimistic by then :)
They have spent years on clinical trials, Vin. The data have just been submitted in Jul'24 this year. The clock starts from there. If it is approved, TauRx will have to get the drugs into the UK market within 3 years time. I believed submission to Europe/US/Canada and other markets will follow suit upon UK MHRA approval.
Genting group is a sleeping giant, Jk :) A giant that generates mid to high single digit billions ringgit from its operations. There are not many companies capable of generating such cash from its operation other than banks. So, manage your positions well while waiting for the giant to be awakened. We just need to monitor for risks that could jeopardize its operation; limiting its ability to generate the cash needed for growth.
For those wondering the role of NYGFLB from the link above. The NYGFLB is tasked with recommending licencees for three downstate casino licences from the bids submitted by June 2025. NYGFLB will vet applications and make recommendations to the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC). 2nd half of 2025 will be exciting for Genting group - growth of RWS and RWNYC :)
manage it well, jk :) euphoric moments will come in second half of 2025; expecting upward eps revision, tp targets to be raised by IBs by then. lets not forget the earnings growth - RWS2.0, RWNYC full casino license prospect, first drop of LNG expected in 2026 and the wild card of TauRx.
remember to follow your own investment plan and just monitor for risks that could disrupt the earnings / quarterly performance will do, jk. Have a great 2025!
Happy weekend, Vin. Is there a TauRx news? TauRx mentioned that its 150 days approval process. The actual days may take longer than that if the authority requests for more information. One actual example is Lecanemab by Eisai. The marketing authorization was submitted under the 150 days approval process in May'23 and approved in Aug'24; actual days longer than 150 days. I am not concerned at this stage because submission to authority has been done. Its just a matter whether approved, conditional approval, reject or resubmission.
can be a mix of cash dividend and share dividend/buybacks. after all, authority for share buyback renewal has been approved back in the AGM this year. for now, i prefer cash dividend :)
Company seem like long time didn't share buy back..
Hope LKT gv some good news to boots the share price...
This week gent performance still acceptable.. Hehe..
its 5.00 when I first bought it at 4.02, Vin. It was based on the assumption of 15% discount rate, min 15 cents dividend to be collected for two consecutive years (wanted to ride GenS growth), risk management plan is based on 12% stop loss from the average price. Will continue to add quarterly as long as the price is below 4.02, no deterioration to the variables such as ebitda, dividend payout, its credit ratings which I am currently using BBB/Baa2 and etc.
did not include LNG production starting 2026, TauRx and RWNYC full casino license prospect which will boost its ebitda. but these are just my own calculation for my own reference, Vin. You can use the TP targets by IBs - min or average is good enough; equally conservative.
funds rebalancing final week of Dec'24 and first week of Jan'25 should push Genting/GenM higher - the optimistic faction and new funds position beginning of the year :) Will be nice to have it close above 3.90/2.30 accordingly.
GenS earnings recovery itself will position it towards high side of 4.0++ and earnings growth to push it to 5.00++ while all else equals. The big jump at the end of 2025 will depend on (1) HMTM UK marketing authorization - first wave (2) RWNYC full casino license status will be known by then if there are no delays (3) first drop of LNG in 2026 (4) Other major market marketing authorization for HMTM to follow suit after UK market - 2nd wave. The significance of the jump depends on TauRx's plans.
Hehe.. Hope everything go well!
Atleast they're processing and need some of information...
Btw happy new year to u cheng!
Thx for giving us alot great info from genting... And We really learn alot from you too! Cheers!
GenS Q4 results will be flattish still against Q2'24 when the hard rock hotel capacity were taken down for renovation. GenM will again cover for GenS until Q2'25 where the numbers from GenS will show recovery by then.
Seems like the luxury all-suite hotel will be available in the first quarter of 2025; Q2FY25 numbers should be reflected accordingly. In November, Genting Singapore held a groundbreaking ceremony for its up-and-coming waterfront development at RWS, slated for completion by 2030. The $6.8 billion project adds more than 164,000 sqm to RWS, including plans to build a Super Nintendo World in Universal Studios Singapore (USS). An 88m-high experiential “mountain trail” and two more hotels with 700 rooms are part of the development.
But visitors won’t have to wait until then to visit a refreshed RWS – the first quarter of 2025 sees the soft launches of Minion Land in USS, and a luxury all-suite hotel replacing Hard Rock Hotel Singapore. A rebranded and expanded SEA Aquarium, which will be known as Singapore Oceanarium, will also open in the first half of 2025.
near term - RWLVS AML complaints disposition plan. Response from RWLVS submitted back in Dec'24, BODs formed which provides oversight/supervision based on the background of the team, Sibella's disposition plan completed and lets not forget that RWLVS contributed a lot from taxes and employment to the Nevada state. I am in the opinion that it will be monetary fines and the revamp of AML policies; unlikely revoking license due to RWLVS contribution to the state.
Yes, and Genting is a good place for funds from tech stocks :) trade wars, minimum wage salary starting in Feb, over valuation of tech, correction in the making in US led by AI stocks.
I looked at remuneration report for FY23 which is showing LKT receiving ~48M at company level which is part of ~114M at the group level, Andy. 114M is approx USD25M for a global integrated resorts company. Robert Goldstein from LVS is receiving ~USD40M. LVS is also a global company. I have no concern with LKT's remuneration looking at Genting's financial performance, dividend payout and capex projects that it is undertaking now :)
According to Yin, renovations on those floors are underway while Genting Malaysia management had confirmed that they will reopen “eventually”, albeit without a firm date set at this stage.