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the oil cut seems like can't move the price higher. still range btwn 62 to 63. perhaps the market still worry about the trade deal which will affect the demand of oil? good company with healthy balance sheet just the price of oil is volatile. will monitor closely.
wow, David. 200 lots starting position. that entry price of yours is close to the price of equity funding carried out back in 2015. new shares issued at the price of 67 cents, 85 cents and 88 cents.
tzyh cheng, thanks for the sharing. the oil cut is an extension to it's existing cut that originally should last until Mar and now possible extending to year end by additional 500k barrels per day. while the opec and opec+ has agreed to do so, there is the U.S. shale oil the new largest oil producer, Brazil and Norway still. trade war impact means potential slowing economy and leads to lower demand for oil.
imo - this is how it works. oil price up, upstream o&g capex goes up as it's profitable to explore and drill more, good selling price, improves cash flow, and production growth. the opposite happens if oil price goes down. Profit margins depends on the difference between the selling of oil price per barrel versus the $/barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Hence, the impact to profitability and hence improving share price is not immediate. if it is immediate, it's speculative in nature.
closer to hibiscus, the company has been really diligent in keeping it's balance sheet healthy and not using debt to finance explorations but rather equity funding. the surplus cash can be used to acquire new assets instead of traditional explorations. the company has set a target of producing 20k barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 100M barrels (mmbl) of proven and probable oil reserves by 2021. That's not an easy task as it's capital intensive to achieve it. Hence, imo - div can wait first.
currently, Hibiscus $/boe is at $20 in avg from both it's Anasuria and North Sabah assets. if the oil price goes higher next year, it will improve it's margins significantly. and increase capex to achieve the 2021 target. the bpd has grown from 3.5k in 2015 to 8.4k last year vs target of 20k; which means new assets is required. the oil reserves is progressing really well > 100 mmbl; as of 2019 2P reserve is 50 mmbl and 2C reserve is 71 mmbl. Just my opinions, could be wrong. hope it helps.
Cheng, the oil price seems like won't rally higher even Saudi promised to have deeper cut next yr. will u still adding at 0.76 given the price of oil still trading below 65usd?
Leong luckily I sold all at 0.25 a few months ago. when can this bunga bloom again? very tortured when seeing other o&g company trading higher. I know can't compare upstream with downstream company. but u know how tat feel. haiz
alright, tzyh cheng. I am just adding position according to diff level margins of safety as long as hibiscus maintain its clean balance sheet and healthy reserve replacement ratio > 1. initiated position at 30%, next is 40% (0.76) and followed by 50% (0.63).
I invest is base on the company performance. The production cost at 20 dollar with 60plus oil price. I factor in 20dolllar for maintenance and others misc. Still got 50% (20 profit of 40 dollar cost)
yes David. I like hibiscs management too. they really did a great job in managing the cash flow and most important the production cost. it really amazed me by 0 borrowing and positive cash flow.
haha yes David. but my TA is soso only. so I will keep monitor oil price until it turn bullish. I don't mind my entry price is higher as long as the trend is there.
Thanks Cheng, 0 cash position before that. Too risk, I will use up that for blue-chip as those fund will perform window dressing next week onward. Try get some for Christmas and CNY $$
wow, David. margins account. have faith in your plans. tzyh cheng, yes it is. not letting it go. hope to add still but will wait. will let it go if the fundamentals changes that may imp.act it's financials. until then, just monitor and follow the company's development. after all, it has clean balance sheets and just need to monitor the external headwinds.